Copper is expected to enter a structural deficit starting in 2026 as electrification demand outpaces new production, according to BloombergNEF. In its December report, Transition Metals Outlook 2025, BloombergNEF highlights copper as the transition metal under the most acute pressure, driven by rapid expansion of data centers, grids, and electric vehicles. Demand for copper linked to the energy transition is projected to triple by 2045, potentially pushing the market into a persistent deficit.
Kwasi Ampofo, Head of Metals and Mining, BloombergNEF, told MINING.COM that the imbalance stems from rising demand colliding with slow project execution. “Copper, platinum and palladium have experienced very slow capacity addition at a time where demand is growing,” he said, identifying these commodities as facing the greatest near-term stress.
Supply constraints are already apparent. Disruptions at major sites in Chile, Indonesia, and Peru combined with sluggish permitting processes, have tightened the market. BloombergNEF estimates that, without new mines or significant improvements in scrap collection, the copper shortfall could reach 19Mt by 2050.
Copper prices have risen 35% this year, on track for the largest annual gain since 2009. Ampofo noted that while debates around copper shortages often mix short-term price movements with long-term fundamentals, BloombergNEF’s forecast is based on structural supply-demand trends. Bringing additional supply online this decade will require consistent investment, streamlined permitting, and enhanced recycling systems.
Miners increasingly share this long-term perspective. BloombergNEF observes renewed capital expenditure and consolidation among major producers including Anglo American, BHP, Glencore, Rio Tinto, Vale, and Zijin. Ampofo said the surge in mergers and acquisitions reflects copper’s growing strategic importance.
Other Metals
While copper dominates near-term concerns, the report notes differing trajectories for other metals:
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Aluminium: Production remains heavily concentrated in China, responsible for half of global output. Government caps to curb emissions limit growth potential, which could persist unless the ceiling is raised. Under the Economic Transition Scenario, China’s share falls to 37% by 2050, while India more than doubles production.
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Graphite: Demand is projected to rise from 2.7Mt in 2025 to 6.7Mt in 2050, driven by lithium-ion battery anodes. The market may enter a technical deficit by 2032 as secondary supply from retired batteries fails to offset slower primary-supply growth.
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Lithium: Supply continues to expand, with capacity potentially reaching 4.4Mt of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035, up from 1.5Mt in 2025. Growth is supported by new projects in South America and Africa, advances in direct-extraction technologies, and rising secondary supply.
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Manganese: Supply aligns with demand through 2050, thanks to stable ore availability and its primary use in steelmaking, which accounts for 97% of consumption. Short-term risks remain due to logistical challenges in South Africa and Gabon’s planned 2029 export ban.
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Cobalt: Prices rebounded after the Democratic Republic of Congo imposed a four-month export ban in February, later replaced with a quota capping annual exports at 96,600t for 2026–2027, a 50% reduction from 2024 levels.
China’s Continued Dominance
Despite broad investment in critical-minerals supply chains, China maintains control over much of midstream refining, particularly in aluminium, graphite, manganese, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths. Ampofo noted that government involvement can unlock capital but also increases conflict risk, cautioning that subsidies alone cannot resolve supply-chain concentration. Looking ahead, he said 2026 price signals will be crucial, either incentivizing new supply or curbing demand via substitution.