Mexico, Canada, and the United States will formally begin the USMCA review in January, with a deadline to complete the process by July 1, 2026. Officials on both sides expressed cautious confidence in its renewal, while noting that further progress is needed. “Starting in early January next year, what we will have is the treaty review process,” said Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard.
On Dec. 18, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada and the United States will begin USMCA review discussions in mid-January. He noted that Canada’s trade representative, Dominic LeBlanc, will initiate formal talks with his US counterpart, Jamieson Greer.
Carney reaffirmed his government’s commitment to protecting Canada’s economic interests throughout the negotiations. He emphasized a clear goal: to achieve the best possible deal for Canada, “one that provides certainty and stability for Canadian workers, businesses, and investors, while protecting our unique Canadian advantage.”
Meanwhile, Marcelo Ebrard expressed confidence that the agreement will be renewed by July 1. “If you look at what the US chief negotiator just said during his hearings in Congress this week, it is clear that the agreement will survive. Why? Because we are the largest buyer of US goods. No one buys more from the United States than Mexico,” he said.
Last week, the US Trade Representative’s office (USTR) highlighted that the USMCA has provided stability for North American trade, noting that US exports of goods and services to Canada and Mexico have grown by 56% since 2020.
“Therefore, if your economy performs better, that matters to everyone who sells to you. You are a substantial part of the United States’ economic prosperity, or at least a significant portion of it. Take Texas, for example. Who is the No. 1 customer for Texas gas? Mexico. And so on,” said Ebrard.
Ebrad also stressed that the United States relies on Mexico for strategic sectors. “Yes, for a large part of their strategic activities. For example, the US automotive industry would not be competitive without Mexico. There is no way.”
Ebrard underlined the importance of advancing the Economic Development Hubs for Well-Being during the USMCA negotiations, arguing that once the agreement is renewed, investment will flow more freely into Mexico. “Our task will be to close the window of uncertainty as quickly as possible and at the lowest possible cost. That is the strategy. Time, in a way, works in our favor. Remember, time has always been Mexico’s greatest resource,” Ebrard said.
USMCA Delivers Results but Falls Short of Full Success: USTR
Last week, Greer said the USMCA has delivered partial success but requires further progress to secure its renewal ahead of the joint review set for July 1, 2026. In closed-door briefings to US congressional committees, Greer reported broad stakeholder support and highlighted gains such as a 56% increase in US exports to Canada and Mexico since 2020, higher wages for Mexican workers, and Mexico’s role in absorbing 25% of the reduction in the US trade deficit with China.
Despite these results, the USTR concluded that key US objectives remain unmet. Challenges include weak labor law enforcement in Mexico, gaps in customs digitalization, a persistently high US trade deficit in goods, and policy actions that have harmed the business climate, particularly in Mexico’s energy sector. Canada was also criticized for digital regulations affecting US firms and restrictions on dairy market access.
Greer emphasized that the agreement cannot yet be considered a full success and argued that corrective measures are needed to address structural issues, discourage offshoring, and respond to rising investment from non-market economies within North America.