The World Bank predicts that Mexico’s economy will expand once uncertainties surrounding its trade relations with the United States and the upcoming USMCA review are resolved. The institution has revised Mexico’s growth outlook upward through 2027.
William Maloney, Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank, said “growth is not at the level we would like, largely due to uncertainty over the future of the US-Mexico partnership.”
The World Bank now forecasts Mexico’s GDP growth at 0.5% in 2025, up 0.3 points from its previous estimate, and expects 1.4% growth in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Maloney emphasized that resolving trade uncertainties with the United States quickly would boost global investor confidence.
Despite challenges, some opportunities exist. Higher tariffs on Mexico’s competitors in East Asia have redirected trade flows toward the country, partially offsetting US-related tensions. Both Mexico and the United States are in the early stages of the USMCA review, with formal verification expected to begin in January 2026 and conclude by mid-year, according to Mexico’s Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard.