The possibility that Pat Cummins could miss the entire Ashes series because of a back injury looks as damaging for Australia as it does uplifting for England.
Cummins is not only Australia’s captain, he is their attack leader, a bowler whose 309 Test wickets have come at just 22 each – the figures of an all-time great. Any team would miss him. And yet there are two reasons why, for England, his potential absence is not quite the boon it may appear.
The first concerns his likely replacement. Scott Boland was hit out of the 2023 Ashes by England’s Bazballers, but despite that has a Test bowling average of just 16, which drops to 12 at home.
And England will need no reminding of his debut against them at Melbourne four years ago, when he returned the absurd second-innings figures of six for seven.
Because of the dominance of Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood, Boland has played only 14 of Australia’s 41 Tests since the MCG. And, at 36, he is unlikely to establish a long-term career.
But right now he would walk into every other side in the world, and England would be wrong to think that his chastening experience two years ago, when his two Ashes wickets cost 115 and he disappeared at nearly five an over, tell the whole story.
Captain Pat Cummins at the Oval after his Australia side retained the Ashes in 2023
Cummins’ likely replacement, Scott Boland, took six for seven against England four years ago in Melbourne
After all, only one Test bowler since the start of the 20th century has more than his 62 wickets at a lower average – England’s SF Barnes, who played his last Test before the First World War. Boland could do some serious damage this winter.
Then there’s the captaincy itself. Cummins is not a convincing strategist or tactician, and has never looked more lost than when Zak Crawley and Jonny Bairstow were hammering him and his fellow bowlers all round Old Trafford in 2023.
The rudderless ship narrative was quickly glossed over when two days of Manchester rain ensured the Australians retained the urn.
But England have not forgotten that Cummins appeared to have no Plan B, nor that attack will be the likeliest way to unsettle Australia again this winter.
His deputy is Steve Smith, who – by contrast – is a puzzle-solver, both in his batting and his leadership, and has put behind him the sandpaper fiasco of 2018 when he was stripped of the captaincy. He is thoughtful, imaginative and proactive in a manner that has generally eluded Cummins.
Like Ben Stokes, Smith is generally one over ahead of the game, while Cummins can feel one over behind. In fact, Smith v Stokes would bring together two of modern cricket’s best captains.
None of this is to downplay the significance of Cummins’s potential absence from what could be the most compelling Ashes series in Australia for years.
Already world-class, he has at times been unplayable on the spicier pitches that have prevailed in Australia of late. Since he assumed the captaincy in 2021, his average at home has dropped to 18, leading to a friendly dig at Australian surfaces from Joe Root, who recently pointed out: ‘It looks like they’re slightly more bowler-friendly since Pat’s been captain.’
Steve Smith lost the Australia captaincy after Sandpapergate in 2018, but is a formidable leader and tactician who has put the ball-tampering scandal behind him
Aussie skipper Cummins celebrates dismissing his England counterpart Ben Stokes during the 2023 series – but his captaincy has sometimes been called into question
Cummins has thwarted England with bat as well as ball, most notably helping Australia chase down their target to win the first Test at Edgbaston in 2023
Australians may counter that Cummins lives rent free in Root’s head: no Test bowler has dismissed him more times than Cummins’s 11. And there is little doubt England would rather face Australia without him.
And his injury, if it does rule him out of more than the first Test, also raises what Australia regard as a nightmare scenario: if one of Starc, Hazlewood or Boland also break down – and, at 34, Hazlewood is the youngest of the three – then the selectors will be obliged to delve into their less-impressive second tier of seamers. If that happens, England really will be licking their lips.
For several years now, Australia have had the luxury of backing up their three big quicks with the skilful off-breaks of Nathan Lyon – a strategy that has required little forward planning, much less the need for an all-rounder in the class of Stokes.
Cummins’s back problem may require Australia to answer some awkward questions at the very moment they least want to. But England would be daft to take their eye off the ball.