UK economy SHRANK in October
Newsflash: Britain’s economy shrank unexpectedly in October, as the budget cast a shadow of uncertainty over the country.
UK GDP fell by 0.1% month-on-month in October, the Office for National Statistics reports, rather weaker than City expectations of a 0.1% increase.
That follows the 0.1% contraction in September, and no growth in August, and means the UK’s economic malaise continued in October.
Key events
ONS: Why economy contracted
Here’s ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown explaining why the economy shrank in October, and over the last three months:
“The economy contracted slightly in the latest three months, as production fell again and services growth stalled.
“Within production, there was continued weakness in car manufacturing, with the industry only making a slight recovery in October from the substantial fall in output seen in the previous month.
“Overall services showed no growth in the latest three months, continuing the recent trend of slowing in this sector. There were falls in wholesale and scientific research, offset by growth in rental and leasing and retail.”
Worst three-month GDP growth since December 2023
The UK economy also shrank by 0.1% in the three months to October (a better measure than the monthly data).
The ONS says this is the first three monthly fall in real GDP since December 2023.
Services and construction shrank, but production grew
The UK economy shrank in October despite a small boost from the reopening of Jaguar Land Rover’s factories after a cyber attack.
The ONS reports that the services sector fell by 0.3% and construction fell by 0.6% in October.
That more than cancelled out a 1.1% rise in production activity.
UK economy SHRANK in October
Newsflash: Britain’s economy shrank unexpectedly in October, as the budget cast a shadow of uncertainty over the country.
UK GDP fell by 0.1% month-on-month in October, the Office for National Statistics reports, rather weaker than City expectations of a 0.1% increase.
That follows the 0.1% contraction in September, and no growth in August, and means the UK’s economic malaise continued in October.
Copper price hits record highs
The copper price, a gauge of global growth prospects, has just hit an alltime high.
The benchmark three-month copper price on the London metal exchance has hit a record high of $11,952 per metric tonnne.
And in Shanghai, copper futures have hit a new record high of 94,570 yuan per metric ton.
“Doctor Copper” is viewed as a useful measure of the overall health of the economy, as demand rises when firms are investing in new construction, manufacturing, and electrical equipment.
CBI lifts 2026 growth forcast after budget
The Confederation of British Industry has bumped up its economic growth forecast for next year, Reuters reports, citing a temporary boost to government spending following the budget.
It also warned, though, that deep-rooted problems remain within the economy.
The business association predicted the economy will grow 1.3% next year, up from its previous forecast of 1.0% in June, bringing the CBI broadly into line with forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and the OECD.
It raised its forecast for this year to 1.4% from 1.2%, reflecting upward revisions to recent official data.
CBI chief economist Louise Hellem said:
“While it’s welcome to see our growth forecast upgraded for next year, the mood music reads more ‘cautious optimism’ than ‘cause for celebration’.”
The CBI also sees consumer prices rising by 2.6% next year, slightly more than the Bank of England forecast last month.
MPs announce inquiry into work of Office for Budget Responsibility
Phillip Inman
MPs have launched an inquiry into the role and performance of the Office for Budget Responsibility.
The all-party Commons Treasury committee will spend until the end of next month investigating the independent agency’s forecasting performance and impartiality. The panel will consider whether reforms are needed 15 years after the OBR was set up by George Osborne when he was Tory chancellor.
MPs on the committee are understood to be concerned after a row broke out between the OBR and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, over budget briefings.
Richard Hughes, the OBR’s then boss, complained to senior Treasury officials in the run-up to the budget about a flurry of leaks he said had spread “misconceptions” about the agency’s forecasts…. More here.
Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist, Sanjay Raja, suspects the impact of budget uncertainty will “linger” through most of the last quarter of the year.
Raja told clients this week:
After a slip up in September, we expect the first tranche of Q4-25 data to err more on the sluggish side – particularly when it comes to underlying growth. But a rebound in auto-manufacturing, following the cyber attacks on Jaguar Land Rover, will likely see the manufacturing sector bounce back into positive territory. Stronger oil and energy output will also help lift activity. But we don’t expect the services sector – the UK’s growth engine – to move. Construction output, we think, will also contract. Altogether, we expect GDP to edge up by only 0.1% m-o-m.
Where to next? We have revised down our Q4-25 GDP growth projection from 0.2% q-o-q to 0.1% q-o-q. Budget uncertainty, we expect, will linger for much of Q4-25, negatively impacting the labour market, and consequently, spending. Business investment, we expect, will also be dampened, as a result. Overall, we see 2025 GDP growth at 1.4% (unchanged relative to our prior expectations).
Introduction: UK GDP report for October coming up….
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The important thing about last month’s budget is that we now have certainty, as one FTSE 100 CEO told me last week; no more endless speculation about which taxes might rise, for example.
But this morning, we’ll learn how much economic damage was caused by budget uncertainty in the run-up to the November’s fiscal event.
October’s GDP report, due to be released at 7am, is expected to show the economy strugled back to growth after a small contraction the previous month. GDP is forecast to have risen by 0.1% in October, having shrunk by 0.1% in September.
The restart of operations at Jaguar Land Rover’s factories in early October, after a cyber attack, should spur activity higher in the manufacturing sector.
On the other hand, though, the swirling speculation around what might be in the budget has hurt consumer sentiment and business investment; that could show up in the data too.
Michael Brown, senior research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone, points out that that this monthly data can be volatile:
On the data front, this morning’s UK GDP stats are set to show the economy having stagnated in October, largely as a result of pre-Budget uncertainty freezing business investment and consumer spending alike, though the monthly data remains very noisy indeed, with relatively little by way of signal able to be extracted from the report.
We’ll see what we can dig out of it, though.
The agenda
-
7am GMT: UK GDP report for October
-
7am GMT: UK trade report for October
-
7.45pm GMT: French inflation report for November
-
8am GMT: Spanish inflation report for November
-
1.30pm GMT: US national activity index for September
-
4pm GMT: Russia’s GDP report for Q3